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Monthly Market Update November 2019

Monthly Market Update November 2019


Let’s start with the basics: The ARMLS numbers for November 1, 2019 compared with November 1, 2018 for all areas & types:

  • Active Listings (excluding UCB & CCBS): 14,525 versus 17,953 last year – down 19.1% from last year, but up 5.6% from 13,755 last month.
  • Active Listings (including UCB & CCBS): 18,322 versus 21,311 last year – down 14.0% from last year, but up 4.1% from 17,592 last month.
  • Pending Listings: 5,919 versus 4,770 last year – up 24.1% from last year, but down 1.5% from 6,011 last month.
  • Under Contract Listings (including Pending, CCBS & UCB): 9,716 versus 8,128 last year – up 19.5% from last year, but down 1.3% from 9,848 last month.
  • Monthly Sales: 8,018 versus 7,352 last year – up 9.1% from last year, but a tiny amount from 8,019 last month.
  • Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $174.39 versus $165.41 last year – up 5.4% from last year, and up 2.8% from $169.56 last month.
  • Monthly Median Sales Price: $285,000 versus $262,000 last year – up 8.8% from last year, and up 2.0% from $279,500 last month.

Interpreting the Numbers:

So, what are the numbers telling us? They are telling us that while the typical seasonal increase in active listings during October did take place, it was weaker than normal and much weaker than last year. It is good to note that October of 2018 and 2019 each contained 23 working days; therefore, there is no need to apply any adjustments when comparing the 2 months.

When looking at listings under contract and pending listing counts, the numbers are also telling us that demand remains high, although the numbers typically decline between September and November each year due to seasonal factors. Closed sales are still well ahead of last year, and they were almost as high as last month. Sales pricing is finally beginning to take off and has a lot of upward momentum building. Although the Cromford® Market Index has fallen a little over the past month, the huge rise over the prior 8 months is now beginning to have an effect on sales pricing. This is as expected. The CMI is a leading indicator which tends to need 6 to 12 months before its movements are reflected in sales pricing.

We are still in a market that strongly favors sellers and the upward price pressure this implies is starting to become more evident in sales recordings. Since there is little sign of supply increasing substantially, we can expect continued strong upward moves in sales pricing over the next 6 months. We should be on the lookout for any changes in demand, but, at the moment, interest rate movements appear favorable.

What does all of this mean for YOU? Well, if you are looking to sell your home, you better hop to it! This is a seller’s market, and you should definitely take advantage of it. If you are ready to make a move, contact us at 480-425-9300. We have a team ready and able to create a plan to help you take advantage of these market conditions and get the most out of your home.

Happy Thanksgiving!