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Monthly Market Update December 2019

Monthly Market Update December 2019

Let’s start with the basics – the ARMLS numbers for December 1, 2019 compared with December 1, 2018 for all areas & types:

  • Active Listings (excluding UCB & CCBS): 13,869 versus 18,563 last year – down 25.3% from last year, and down 4.5% from 14,525 last month.
  • Active Listings (including UCB & CCBS): 17,577 versus 21,736 last year – down 19.1% from last year, and down 4.1% compared with 18,322 last month.
  • Pending Listings: 5,864 versus 4,562 last year – up 28.5% from, but down 0.9% from 5,919 last month
  • Under Contract Listings (including Pending, CCBS & UCB): 9,572 versus 7,735 last year – up 23.7% from last year, but down 1.5% from 9,716 last month.
  • Monthly Sales: 7,119 versus 6,638 last year – up 7.2% from last year, but down 11.4% from 8,032 last month.
  • Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $179.57 versus $166.75 last year – up 7.7% from last year, and up 3.1% from $174.21 last month.
  • Monthly Median Sales Price: $281,000 versus $260,500 last year – up 7.9% from last year, but down 1.4% from $285,000 last month.

Interpreting the Numbers:

It is important to note that November 2019 contained only 18 working days and October 2019 contained 23, so there were 22% fewer working days in November compared to October. There were 19 working days in November 2018, so this year we see a disadvantage of 5%. This means the numbers above are actually far more impressive than they appear.

According to the numbers, supply is down 25% compared to this time last year. Demand has retained strength much later into the season than normal. Pricing has moved higher over the last 2 months, but we think we are only at the beginning of the latest leg upwards. A rise of $10 per square foot represents an increase of almost 6% in just 2 months.

Another interesting note, luxury sales are breaking records throughout the valley! This year, home sales over $2 million achieved a new record of 51 as compared to 26 last year. Sales under $1 million were up 15% to 281, and sales between $1 million and $2 million were up 38% setting another all-time record for November at 112.

All in all, it does not appear as though things will get much easier for buyers in the weeks ahead. Supply typically falls during December as many sellers take their homes off the market during the holiday season. Even without this effect, the current supply simply cannot support the current level of demand. This makes it vital for buyers to work with agents to ensure they get what they want. The real test, however, will come in January. We will have to wait and see which ramps up faster from the low point of January 1, 2020. Will it be active listings or the under contract counts? Comparing these two numbers using the contract ratio should give us a good forecast of how the upcoming selling season will unfold.

What do these numbers mean for YOU? Well, if you are looking to sell your home, there is no better time than now! We have a team ready and able to create a plan to help you take advantage of these market conditions and get the most out of your home.

And, if you are looking to buy a home, it is more important that ever to use an experienced agent, because you MUST to be completely ready to go when you find that perfect place. We are happy to help in any way possible. You can reach us via email at info@azarchitecture.com or by telephone at 480-425-9300. We look forward to helping you with all of your real estate needs.

Happy Holidays!