Monthly Market Update January 2020

Monthly Market Update January 2020

Let’s start with the basics: The ARMLS numbers for January 1, 2020 compared with January 1, 2019 for all areas & types:

• Active Listings (excluding UCB & CCBS): 12,141 versus 17,339 last year – down 30.0% from last year and down 12.5% from 13,869 last month.
• Active Listings (including UCB & CCBS): 15,018 versus 19,900 last year – down 24.5% from last year and down 14.6% from 17,577 last month.
• Pending Listings: 4,662 versus 3,740 last year – up 24.7% from last year but down 20.5% from 5,864 last month.
• Under Contract Listings (including Pending, CCBS & UCB): 7,539 versus 6,301 last year – up 19.6% from last year but down 21.2% from 9,572 last month.
• Monthly Sales: 7,764 versus 6,457 last year – up 20.2% from last year, and up 8.7% from 7,142 last month.
• Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $179.92 versus $165.21 last year – up 8.9% from last year but almost unchanged from $179.90 last month.
• Monthly Median Sales Price: $289,500 versus $260,500 last year – up 11.1% from last year and up 3.0% from $281,000 last month

Interpreting the Numbers:

WOW! In a nutshell, these numbers are telling us that demand remains high while inventory remains remarkably low. Truthfully, we find the current lack of supply to be quite shocking. There has been a 30% decline since this time last year to reach the lowest level since August 2005. Keep in mind that the population in our area has grown more than 20% since 2005!

It is our opinion that this severe shortage is likely to cause a significant rise in prices. Currently, the median sales price is already up 11% over the last 12 months, and the average price per square foot is up almost 9%. We suspect this statistic is also headed for a double figure appreciation rate. Buyers can only hope for a surge in new listings arriving over the next 12 weeks which could happen if sellers are tempted by the higher pricing they could possibly achieve; however, if the sellers are planning to stay in or around Phoenix, they will have to pay more for their new home too. Phoenix is currently the strongest large-city housing market in the USA. This is fueled by inter-state population movements by both retirees as well as people moving here from California and other Western states for work and a lower cost of living. We think demand is likely to remain healthy despite the rising prices.

The primary question is whether we will see any change in the meager supply of homes for sale. If there is a rise in available listings, it is likely to take place over the next few weeks. There was no sign of an improvement in new listing flows over the last several weeks of 2019, but 2020 is a new year! So, we will be watching closely for signs of change, and keeping you up to date on the latest happenings in the real estate market for the Phoenix Metro area.

If you are interested to know the value of your home in this hot market, contact us at 480-425-9300 or info@azarchitecture.com. We would love to help you list your home or find a new one. With years of expertise backing us, we are confident we can help you!

Welcome to 2020!