Market Update July 2020

First off, we must apologize. Over the past few months, the market has changing much more rapidly than ever before. We did not post a monthly market report in May and June because of the weekly shifts that were occurring. We pride ourselves on putting out the most current, up to date information, and did not feel we could do that over those hectic months. However, as real estate agents living living and working through this pandemic, we often hear the same questions over and over from our clients: What is happening with the housing market? Do you think it’s going to crash? Do you think prices are going to go down? At this point in the pandemic, we feel that we owe it to you to catch you up on what has been happening in the market as well as what is being forecasted to happen.

The best, and only, way to answer these questions is by looking at the data we currently have and comparing it to historical data. Initially, we thought this pandemic was going to lead to a pretty hefty recession and thus a possible real estate crash; however, based on the recent data on the economy, unemployment, as well as the real estate market, many economists have revised their forecasts for the remainder of 2020 – and the outlook is actually extremely encouraging! We have compiled for you the following quotes from a few national experts as well as some local data from the Cromford Report to show you exactly what people are thinking about the housing market throughout the end of 2020 and moving into 2021.

According to the Economic & Housing Research Forecast put out by Freddie Mac, “Going forward, we forecast the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage to remain low, falling to a yearly average of 3.4% in 2020 and 3.2% in 2021.” These extremely low interest rates are helping spur affordability in spite of rising prices which certainly is nice for buyers. (http://www.freddiemac.com/fmac-resources/research/pdf/202006-Forecast.pdf)

Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist and Senior Vice President of Research for the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) says, “Sales completed in May reflect contract signings in March and April – during the strictest times of the pandemic lockdown and hence the cyclical low point. Home sales will surely rise in the upcoming months with the economy reopening, and could even surpass one-year-ago figures in the second half of the year.” (https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/existing-home-sales-fall-9-7-in-may-while-nar-expects-strong-rebound-in-coming-months)

Joel Kan, Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting for the Mortgage Bankers Association says, “The recovery in housing is happening faster than expected. We anticipated a drop-off in Q3. But, we don’t think that’s the case anymore. We revised our Q3 numbers higher. Before, we predicted a 2 percent decline in purchase originations in 2020, now we think there will be 2 percent growth this year.” (https://www.bankrate.com/real-estate/summer-housing-market-off-to-strong-start/)

While it’s great to see things looking up from a national standpoint, we realize that the most important market to our clients is their own! What are we seeing on a local level you might ask? With employment rising sharply over the past month, things are starting to look up in the Phoenix Metro area too!

In her most recent recap on July 5th, Tina Tamboer, Senior Housing Analyst for the Cromford Report, mentioned that while the number of residential real estate contracts weakened this month, they are still up 11.5% over this exact week last year. Tina did indicate that housing supply, however, is down about 42% from this time last year. Per Tina and the Cromford Report, the statistics show that the real estate market in Maricopa County is no where near balanced right now. In fact, due to the short supply of homes available, there are certain areas in the valley that have as many as eight times the amount of properties under contract than they do for sale. Needless to say, the current real estate market in Maricopa County heavily favors the seller right now. It is, in no uncertain terms, a “sellers market”.

So, what does this mean for you? Well, if you take into consideration the optimistic outlook of the economists mentioned above and the current market statistics from Maricopa County, it means that NOW is a great time to sell! If you happen to be a buyer looking for a home, low interest rates are helping to keep payments low amidst rising home prices; however, because of the low housing supply, it is more important than ever to have a good REALTOR® on your side to make sure you secure the home of your dreams. You will need a seasoned pro, like one of the fabulous agents here at azarchitecture, to help you write an offer that will stand out amongst the competition!

If you have been thinking about listing your property, please reach out to us. We can conduct a thorough evaluation to help you price your property appropriately. We will also determine the precautions that we will take to keep you and your family as safe as possible while your home is on the market, and, last but not least, we will develop a marketing plan that will help ensure you get top dollar for your home in the shortest amount of time. Our ultimate goal is to make this a quick and easy process for you!

If you would like to set up a free home evaluation to find out what your home is currently worth, please contact us at info@azarchitecture.com today!