Our Real Estate Market Explained: Part One “Just The Facts, Ma’am…”

Our Real Estate Market Explained in Three Parts

This mid-October we are exploring the current real estate market shift.  In this three part series, we examine where we are, where we think we are going and why we are optimists for Arizona.

The Cromford Report is the number 1 resource for Arizona housing. It tracks the history and current status of the Greater Phoenix residential market.

Let’s start with October numbers first:

Active Listings (excluding UCB & CCBS): 20,084 versus 7,649 last year – up 163% – and up 7.4% from 18,694 last month

Active Listings (including UCB & CCBS): 22,580 versus 11,622 last year – up 94.3% – and up 5.0% compared with 21,506 last month

Pending Listings: 4,862 versus 7,605 last year – down 36.1% – and down 13.3% from 5,607 last month

Under Contract Listings (including Pending, CCBS & UCB): 7,358 versus 11,578 last year – down 36.4% – and down 12.6% from 8,419 last month

Monthly Sales: 6,361 versus 9,377 last year – down 32.2% – but up 0.7% from 6,315 last month

Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $277.40 versus $251.87 last year – up 10.1% – but down 3.3% from $286.79 last month

Monthly Median Sales Price: $439,000 versus $410,000 last year – up 7.1% – but down 1.3% from $444,900 last month

Pachinko

The economy is a complex beast. With so many numbers, smoothed-out averages, and other colorful lines on complex charts indicating future price direction, it is extremely hard to pinpoint exactly what is going on at any given time. But when you zoom out, it’s easier to understand the cycles at play, and it allows you to focus on long-term value.

When things change, people start to forget about reality. Investors start to wonder whether the macro conditions are bringing down traditional markets for good. Highly unlikely, of course, and I’ll tell you why in a second. Perhaps there is a natural reset that rebalance the markets at the end of each cycle.

We know that housing is a core factor of our economy. That’s a fact that’s not changing anytime soon. Blackrock wasn’t buying up all the homes in the country in 2020 for fun and games. They bought because they saw the bigger picture.

They got the best interest rates in town, so I doubt they’ll sell anytime soon. But let’s say they wanted to get out of their purchases, where might they park their hard-earned dollar? Stocks? Bonds? Gold? A 9% return is great, but that number is nowhere near what housing historically has returned.

There’s nowhere to hide. Like all good bears, they will sleep with their purchases until the grueling winter is over. What’s even better is they know renters will pay the premium. Oh, crap. Should’ve bought a house last month, right?

The market has been heading to a more balanced state for almost a year and a half. Short-term buyers/flippers see a downward trajectory. They operate out of two impulses, fear and greed. However, when you zoom out through the decades, you can clearly see the macro trajectory. Up only, baby!

The time to be strong is now. I’ll tell you why in Part Two, posted tomorrow.