Founded in 1970, Arcosanti is the creation of architect Paolo Soleri and The Cosanti Foundation, a nonprofit organization dedicated to inspiring reimagined urbanism. Its mission is to build resilient, equitable communities that are sustainably integrated with the natural world.
A trip to Arcosanti combines both a nostalgic look at our architectural past and a provocative glimpse into what our future could hold. Remarkably, it has now been over fifty years since the first constructions began. I returned recently, perhaps as a way to reconnect with those ideals—how architectural experimentation and utopian thinking can still inform our desert experience.
Arcosanti is a unique place in every sense. Centrally located in Arizona, it’s just about an hour’s drive from Phoenix, Flagstaff, Prescott, and Sedona. It’s an ideal day trip or a fascinating detour if you’re traveling through the Verde Valley. The road leading in piques your curiosity, especially with a Soleri-inspired exit bypass. There’s a tangible sense of mystery and anticipation as you approach. This wasn’t my first visit—but it had been a while, and I was eager to reacquaint myself with its vision.
A Living Laboratory
First impressions affirm that this is a visionary place—one that still deserves far more attention.
Frozen in time, yet quietly evolving, Arcosanti is a living laboratory. It explores not just architectural form but also cultural and societal ideals—something between a utopian maker community and an immersive design experiment.
I’ve always harbored mixed feelings about Arcosanti. As someone who grew up near Soleri’s Cosanti in Paradise Valley, I witnessed the early phases of this desert dream firsthand. Cosanti felt intimate and explosive with energy, a birthplace of raw, conceptual architecture. As momentum shifted to Arcosanti, I could see the gravitational pull redirect. Even today, I find the early work at Cosanti more poetic in scale—but Arcosanti was always the next step.
Returning felt like reconnecting with an old friend. Thanks to a superb personal tour, I came to understand it more fully—from the inside out.
Scale, Vision, and Reverence
Arcosanti is undeniably important. The fact that Soleri realized this much is a marvel. The scale demands commitment and, unsurprisingly, has come at the cost of some of the intimacy seen in earlier works. Still, what exists here is nothing short of incredible. Visiting evokes a sense of curious wonder—much like walking through Roman ruins. You may not know the names of the many creatives and volunteers who helped bring this dream to life, but their impact is etched into every cast panel and poured surface. There should be a plaque honoring every hand that shaped it.
Today, Arcosanti continues its mission through experimentation and application of Soleri’s arcology principles—a fusion of architecture and ecology offering an alternative to unsustainable urban sprawl.
As with many experimental architecture sites, time has taken its toll. Some structures are aging, but they remain bold statements—nearly Brutalist when compared to Soleri’s earlier organic forms. The experience of the place, however, is not in single buildings. Arcosanti is best considered as a whole. The voids between structures are just as important as the massings themselves. There’s a profound spatial dialogue happening here, where form and absence are in conversation.
Relevance and Reverence
It would be a mistake to consign Arcosanti—or Soleri’s ideas—to the past. This is not, and never was, a “hippie hangout.” These built environments stand as testaments to rigor, vision, and idealism. The mission is as viable today as it was fifty years ago—perhaps even more so, given today’s environmental and urban challenges.
Imagine the effect Arcosanti could have if it were fully funded. People come for the bells and the architecture, but the seriousness and philosophical underpinnings are the true draw. If you have the chance, take the archive tour—you’ll see for yourself.
There’s still an idyllic quality to the place, perhaps even more than when it began. Meanwhile, Phoenix continues to suffer the consequences of unchecked suburban sprawl and leapfrog development. Seeing, in literal and concrete form, an alternative to what is helps you imagine what could be.
If You Go:
Visitors to Arcosanti will explore a site that continues to influence architects, urban planners, and designers from across the globe.
Guided tours are required to explore the grounds and architecture in depth.
Visitor Center Hours: 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. daily
Tours: Held multiple times daily year-round
(excluding major holidays)
The Visitor’s Center, Café, Gallery & Gift Shop, and restrooms are accessible to day visitors not taking a guided tour.
Editor’s Note
The legacy of Paolo Soleri is complex and important. It must be viewed in its entirety. Neighbor and classmate Daniela Soleri courageously shared her experience and trauma in an essay that deserves attention and reflection.
Arcosanti has publicly reflected on this essay; their response can be found at arcosanti.org/me-too.
Sativa Peterson conducted interviews with Scott Jarson for three episodes in the series. Listen to all three episodes by clicking through the links below.
_______________________________________________ A hidden gem at Scottsdale’s Camelback Inn remains relatively unchanged 85 years later KJZZ | By Sativa Peterson
Published September 25, 2024
In this particular episode, Scott Jarson shares his favorite part of Camelback Inn.
Click through to the article to give it a listen!
_______________________________________________ This luxury Scottsdale neighborhood used to be a Moroccan-themed destination resort KJZZ | By Sativa Peterson Published September 26, 2024
In this particular episode, Scott Jarson shares how this luxury Scottsdale neighborhood used to be a Moroccan-themed destination resort. Click through to the article to give it a listen!
_______________________________________________ The bell tower is all that remains of the once legendary Jokake Inn at the Phoenician KJZZ | By Sativa Peterson
Published September 27, 2024
In this particular episode, Scott Jarson shares how this bell tower is all that remains of the once legendary Jokake Inn at the Phoenician.
KJZZ Radio Show – Special Guests Scott & Debbie Jarson
Over the course of the interview both Debbie and Scott speak on what makes an architecturally unique home and how they got started specializing in the sales and marketing of architecturally unique properties at a time when mid-century homes weren’t yet considered mid-century or appreciated in quite the same way they are today! Phoenix historic neighborhoods were newly founded at the time and only just started being protected. Most contemporary and modernist homes were considered a harder sell (with a longer sale cycle) that many of their real estate peers just couldn’t quite understand. Coming from a strong background in art and having studied architecture, they could both appreciate and speak in depth on design to help bring these properties to the limelight with a genuine passion!
Click through to the article to give it a listen!
And sign up for our magazine Defining Desert Living to learn more about great architecture in the valley and the latest on creative living.
_______________________________________________ Staying Power: A pair of realtors helped define Phoenix architecture KJZZ | By Lauren Gilger Published February 1, 2024
Top 5 Most Architecturally Significant Homes of 2022
December 29th, 2022
To celebrate these incredible achievements, here are our Top 5 Most Architecturally Significant Homes Represented by AZA in 2022! Each of these homes is truly special, boasting fantastic designs, impeccable styles and breathtaking structural elements. From modern marvels to timeless wonders, these five homes represent the very best of architectural design and craftsmanship. We couldn’t be prouder to have represented these homes, and we hope that you take as much joy in learning about their captivating histories and exquisite details as we have. Here’s to an incredible year of desert architecture!
With design by Frank Lloyd Wright apprentice and Taliesin Architects co-founder, John Rattenbury – he and his team of associated architects and apprentices designed the Charles and Alta Myers Residence located in the Desert Highlands community of North Scottsdale. It remains one of the most significant homes by this firm and is deeply connected to Wright and his principles of organic architecture.
Impressive to this day, and one of his finest works, the Myers Residence appears to grow out of the hillside. Located at the foot of Pinnacle Peak, this Wright protégé used his acumen to design a home of continuous curves that nestle into this boulder strewn environ. At approximately 10,000 square feet, the design belies its size in using multiple roof forms to break up the mass, and to provide a sense of individual shelters along the landscape. Decorative details echo the shapes, forms, and colors of the desert. The home – at once of, and in, this generous multi-lot desert site remains timeless and one-of-a-kind.
Architect John Rattenbury passed away on March 28, 2021 at the age of 93. The Myers house endures a graceful statement of lasting monument to his talent.
Phoenix offers a handful of signature designs that define contemporary Desert Modern Architecture; this home designed by Wendell Burnette is one of the finest! A superb balance of mass, materials, light, scale and perforation perfectly placed on a native landscaped, gentle hillside slope. Wonderfully executed details; a wealth of minutiae to delight the connoisseur in a simple design that offers a carefree and comfortable plan that defines our desert-lifestyle.
Stunning City-views anchor you to the urban hub; the nearby Mountain Preserve panorama calms the soul. The private pool is a sensory experience; providing an enclave that is both dramatic and serene.
The home was carefully renovated and restored in 2012; the new owners painstakingly following the Architect’s vision and direct oversight to co-create the final work as it is today.
The gardens were updated and recreated to naturalize the setting and to allow a seamless connection to the site. Well published and celebrated, this remains a signature design for Mr. Burnette and is widely considered to be an outstanding example of his work.
There are so few homes remaining that represent the “Arizona School” of Desert Modern Architecture other than the Halas House designed by award-winning, “Master of the Southwest” Architect Eddie Jones, FAIA. Immaculately kept by the original family, this home is being offered for the first time ever. Featured in many publications, this award-winning home nestles into its Camelback Mountain hillside site offering a quiet, yet expressive design well integrated into nature, with commanding views of Paradise Valley. The home offers brick masonry and copper construction, simply amazing detailing, and custom steel elements. Soaring ceilings make the volumes feel more spacious and the full-height glass walls bring the views and outdoors in. Not a single detail was overlooked in this custom home. The main ceilings feature a half-barrel vault in redwood while the custom millwork is outfitted in white oak. Open kitchen offers a plethora of storage and wonderful natural light, a gift from the round skylight details found throughout this home.
The plan is generous, flexible and perfectly sized; including a great room anchored by the circular masonry fireplace, formal dining and three bedrooms. One of the bedrooms opens into the owners suite for a convenient full office. The 2nd guest room sports it’s own entrance, en-suite bath and built-in fold-down bed, bookcases and private access to the garage. You’ll find an enclosed glass solarium that is a perfect place for morning coffee, complete with private side patio with a zen-like water feature. Sheltered and serene. The owners suite offers every detail from the large closet, completely fitted in oak, to the bath suite complete with shower, soaking tub with views, separate double sinks and direct access to the pool. The sparkling lap pool is perfect-sized and ready for entertaining. There’s an outdoor shower too!
The home offers access off of Valle Vista Rd for easy and private garage entry. Out front there’s a circular drive for guests and more. Well sighted, the home is very quiet and elevated well above street level to capture a view corridor that looks across the valley, from Mummy Mountain to Piestewa Peak and beyond! Behind is the glorious rock and desert of Echo Canyon, easily enjoyed poolside or at the private entertaining patio below.
This is a rare opportunity that cannot be duplicated. Pride of continuous ownership is evident in this home and un-replicated at anywhere near the asking price.
Located on a five-acre gently sloping rise in Cave Creek, the Hidden Valley Desert House is a “long pavilion for living” that commands the site. Designed by Wendell Burnette FAIA, this very special home offers superb materials, detailed construction and a unique plan to make it simply a masterwork of living design.
A seemingly straightforward design delights in detail and surprise: From ground level, the home is anchored on a solid plinth using stepped, local concrete masonry walls and an integrally colored concrete deck/slab rendered monolithic hand-applied plaster style coating. Above the plinth is a large shade canopy that appears to float across the mass, creating a comforting sense of shelter. The upper roof canopy offers a deep, mill-finish stainless steel fascia that screens photovoltaic solar panels and necessary mechanical, while echoing the landscape and sky.
Artfully sighted, the primarily south-facing home is surrounded by a forest of mature Saguaro, but the site offers unique ecology; a teddy bear cholla field to the east flourishing in a prominent outcrop of unique pinkish-red shale. The home is elevated perfectly to enjoy sweeping views from the distant Phoenix Valley to the south. Surrounding mountain ranges include the Continental Mountains to the east, which reflect the sunset sky.
Inside and out, the underside of the canopy uses a black theatrical fabric scrim that creates a continuous feeling of deep soft shade and void allowing them to always feel open. The lowest level of the home lives as a comforting shelter, the upper levels are continuously open to view and earth with doors and glazing that create a much larger living space than what’s conventionally under roof. When opened, there are often no discernible distinctions between inside and outside.
We find this simple statement by the architect encapsulates the serenity and harmony of this home in perfect summary; the architect shares: “For our clients this house was about purging/simplifying their life and also about an indoor/outdoor house for their Birds, Koi, Rhodesian Ridgebacks and one cat and their very specific way of living”. We are certain that you’ll find this home to be a perfect definition of Desert Living.
This Modern Hillside home was designed by Edward B. (Ned) Sawyer FAIA and offers spectacular views coupled with superb architecture. Perfectly positioned near the top of Palm Canyon, the home commands the site with sweeping vistas of both surrounding mountain preserves and city lights beyond.
A versatile floorplan, perfect for today’s lifestyle offering five bedrooms, attached guest suite, office/den, formal dining, large living room, adjacent built-in bar/game room, luxury eat-in kitchen with upgraded appliances. Views are available from nearly every room in the house which couples with outdoor living perfect for entertaining; oversized patios, negative edge pool, and enjoy amazing views from the synthetic-lawn grass yards. Hillside-living gains the views, but the large yard offers generous space for outdoor fun.
Located between Paradise Valley and the Biltmore area, Palm Canyon offers a fantastic location seemingly minutes from everything! This secluded location is surrounded by natural desert and dramatic homes. For the architecture lovers: The neighborhood offers an array of original designs from Will Bruder to Frank Lloyd Wright.
This double-volume home was artfully crafted to display the architect’s devotion to “complete design” and desert modernism. The mortar-washed masonry is juxtaposed against the clear glass and crisp lines of the house. Inside, the eye is ever drawn out to the view: one enjoys both a sense of shelter, as well as a complete connection to the outdoors.
About the architect: Ned Sawyer worked closely with Arizona Modernist Al Beadle and went on to develop a signature modernist ethic of his own. Now coming into their own as the architectural statements that they are, his designs are garnering the respect they deserve. This custom design is a rare find.
Behind an unassuming horizontal profile is one of the most unique homes in the Valley. This earth-sheltered subterranean home was designed and built by the engineer owner to create a highly efficient and sustainable desert home. Initially created as a response to high costs and the energy crises during the 1970’s, the home has stood the test of time.
What started as a vision became a proven ongoing experiment that has successfully explored energy efficient living in our harsh desert environment. Earth-sheltered homes are nothing new, but thanks to the benefit of having an arts and engineering family as its benefactor, this home incorporated several unique, innovative and successful design concepts. It has gained considerable attention over the years with a wide variety of articles shining a light on Jimenez’s innovative approach to architecture.
Originally built by mid century architect Ralph Haver, this home is located in Marlen Grove, THE quintessential Haver neighborhood in North Central Phoenix. In desiring to honor the history of these unique designs, the owner called on Wendell Burnette Architects to create a thoughtful update to this home.
The architect reorganized the plan, creating an open kitchen, elegant baths, and an even more harmonious relationship to the outdoors. Expansion of the roof line in mimicry of the original offers repetition of form, and the addition of clerestory windows, clear glass and abundant skylights balance the natural light.
Highest quality architectural details are used judiciously, keeping the spaces uncluttered and open fitting for this exclusive design-oriented neighborhood. The attention to detail in this home makes it a minimalist’s dream come true.
Designed by modernist architect Al Beadle, this amazing home is Arizona living at its best! With signature Beadle detailing including unique steel work, floor to ceiling glass walls and windows, a timeless material pallet and superb clarity of design details. The kitchen features new appliances and trademark ”Beadle-white” cabinets. There are renovations of the home are meant to fit today’s lifestyle all while retaining the essential elements. A comfortable resort-style backyard with built ins, bar-style seating and covered patio space. Updated HVAC, windows and doors – the works! This is a very special home that continues the lineage of ownership for this exemplary Beadle design.
Loloma 5 is an extensively-published, award-winning, timeless design by William P. Bruder, FAIA. This highly-upgraded unit has a mixed-use office space, spacious living/dining/kitchen area, 2 bedrooms, a rooftop terrace and a view patio off the living space, each aligned to the Marshall Way streetscape. This perfectly-proportioned 3-story condominium features loft-like interior spaces with high ceilings throughout. The original upgrades have been thoughtfully blended with recent refinements using architect-specified materials and finishes. Live/work zoning makes for a flexible lifestyle; the 2-car carport is gated and private, with direct access to the 1st floor office space from the carport and from Marshall Way.
This building integrates timeless and sustainable materials with desert modern architecture. An elegant zinc clad street elevation marries to natural steel details, galvanized perforated panels, and a Galvalume roof for an elegant material palette. Windows fall playfully, yet rhythmically, along the elevations to allow maximum north-facing natural light to flood the interior spaces.
Considered a masterpiece of modernism by the internationally renowned architect, this iconic building has been published in books and magazines throughout the United States, in Global Architecture (Japan), and UME Magazine (Australia). It is also featured in the book The Green House: New Directions in Sustainable Architecture, and The Phaidon Atlas of Contemporary Work Architecture.
What is a Monolithic Dome?
A Monolithic Dome is a round, steel-reinforced concrete building known for its energy efficiency, low maintenance, and ability to offer near absolute protection from natural disasters. While they have had a relatively low profile in the past, these unique buildings have slowly started gaining national prominence as school districts, churches, sports facilities and even home owners have opted for Monolithic Dome construction. Monolithic Dome homes have been featured on Good Morning America, The Today Show, the NBC Nightly News, MSNBC, CNBC, National Geographic Channel and Discovery Channel.
This is one of the original and few left MONOLITHIC AIRFORM DOME houses from Post War Era 1950 still standing, and it is unbelievable. Can you imagine the cool cave hang out pad you could make out of that place? What about a YERT? The possibilities are endless.
Our Real Estate Market Explained: Part Three “The Bottom Line”…
October 25th, 2022
THE BOTTOM LINE
This isn’t ’08. This is 2022. It’s a more dynamic, hyper-globalized world that feels like it could be breaking down. But we still have global trust that’s not eroding. Business leaders certainly won’t be flocking East after Russian’s actions in Ukraine. The US Government has told workers in the chip manufacturing sector that they must choose to live in America and work for America, or give up their rights as a citizen. Major lines are being drawn in the sand, and my guess is that people will stick around here.
The good news is there isn’t much activity with foreclosures, and so far, it doesn’t look like there’s that much danger.
If you keep an eye on all traditional markets, you start to see the game. When things break, officials step in. When the UK system broke, their central bank stepped in to save the day.
But I’ll say it now. We’re not the UK. We’re not Germany. China is going through their own version of ’08, and there’s evidence it’ll end up being worse for them long term as citizens make runs on the CCP banking system.
We’re the United States of America, the central powerhouse of the world. Where does money flow when there’s no safety left? The American dollar, value companies with long term plans and good cashflow, and housing/commodities.
That’s why we’re here.
We’ve been doing the same thing for over 200 years.
THE WHEEL KEEPS ON TURNING…
The last cycle ended June 2021. Last week, the September CPI came out .4% higher. At first, the market interpreted the report as hot, hot, hot, but that slowly turned into a neutral, even bullish reaction. The Kangaroo is back, jack! Relief may be coming.
But the higher number signifies inflation is still with us for now. I have a theory that it’s actually structural to our society as a whole, but we don’t need to get into that ’til 2024. Largely, I don’t think it matters. This isn’t specifically specific to our country. It’s global. And many economists feel like the recent Fed Rate changes are now taking hold, so there is reason to expect that Inflation will begin to show downward momentum.
I’m very excited about all the new rules they’re proposing which will help stabilize and strengthen the Western world. These measures should not only get us through this stormy period, but actually bring long-term growth back into the picture. If all things go according to plan, the US and EU will be energy independent and open for new business.
If you’re still scared, try and pry your head from the crowd. Your feelings will let you down because they’re not based in reality. They’re based in expectation.
And expectations are transitory.
Our Real Estate Market Explained: Part Two “Endless Cycle”
October 20th, 2022
Think Cycles…
What I want this time period to be is a boring lesson of monetary policy and supply/demand, not a surprise spanking from Jerome Powell. A friend of mine always told me to think in cycles. When people start to panic, it is the time to start getting excited.
Maybe you can’t get on board with my optimism. If it’s triggering to hear, we’re probably closer to a bottom than previously anticipated. Remember what I outlined earlier? When small time investors start to panic, big money starts to buy.
In the short term, things are volatile and unpredictable, but if you can see the long term, the trend is clear.
If you’re thinking in cycles, this is not only what you’ve been expecting, this is what you’ve wanted. Cyclical buyers bought post-2008’s pain, and they either sold 2021’s peak, or boosted their bottom line by refinancing and renting their property out. They’re not worried about 2023 when they know 2030 will pay for their retirement.
Phoenix is one of the fastest growing markets in America. Are you really trying to fade that growth? Good luck. Seriously! Selling closer to a bottom than a top doesn’t often work out, but if you enjoy adding stress to your life to make a quick buck, I say stick to your own plan. At the end of the day, you only have that, a plan.
“Okay, but I didn’t buy after 2008. I never got into the market. I’m never going to get my chance now!”
That’s fear talking, by the way. Brother of Greed.
If you thought you missed your chance, think again. Although prices have fallen, interest rates are still climbing. There’s no indication that the Fed is going to pause anytime soon. It’s a catch-22.
The average bear market lasts 289 days with an average of 37-52% declines. According to the numbers, we are at that 32% mark, so we know we’re close to the end. Can we go lower? Well, yeah. There is local speculation that home prices could dip as much as 15%. We think that is a bit high, and that prices are really just adjusting to the market. Perhaps we see asking prices adjusting and mistake that for a decline in values.
But again, we are trained to see the bigger picture. That drop in price is meaningless if rates rise. Why? Because you’re paying the premium of your mortgage anyway. But with a lower rate, you ensure a lower monthly payment. If rates go down in the near future, you can refinance and pay even less. It’s really as simple as that.
Using a metaphor: “You marry your house, you date your mortgage rate.”
BE LIKE GEORGE COSTANZA. DO THE OPPOSITE.
Every American dreams of being able to buy into a brand new emerging market, but they get scared when opportunity actually presents itself. Are you scared? Feeling a lot of complex emotions? If you’ve got this far, you should be breathing easy. Just do the opposite.
When people are shouting for relief, you should feel optimism. I know that sounds crazy. But let’s just think about this for a second. Imagine you bought a home in Arizona in 2010. You were told another housing correction was looming around the corner in 2011, 2016, 2018, 2020… Do you get the picture?
If you bought a house in Phoenix at that time, chances are you would have earned a pretty penny from holding that investment. It’s possible that purchase allowed you to lever up and take on new investments, which may have increased your worth tenfold.
The bears want you to think everything is over. But the bears are bulls, too. They want to buy! They’re just waiting for you to move out of the way. There’s plenty of anxiety to go around right now. They know you’re ready to bow out of the market.
But here’s the deal. You can buy into a bubble or you can sell into a bubble, and there is not much middle ground. This is how America functions. The old stuff dies, and the new stuff is born. Entropy prevails. It’s what we want to happen as a society, and what’s more important, this is what we can predict to happen! Think of the Fed as the buoy keeping things floating in the longterm. Now that a cycle has ended, short term, it brings the chop.
So, yes, the Fed is here. They’ve come with all the bad headlines. They’ve got the same stern, puckering faces, reminiscent of a scary, angry grandparent. But they’re doing everything in their power to make sure things don’t break.
When things break, it’s no fun. We’re at the point when the family member throws the monopoly game just to get out of his/her margin call. It’s also a little like getting sick. If you root out most of the excess, you can have meteoric rises in demand again. And that’s exactly what the Fed has set out to do.
Overall, you’d be hard pressed to find people celebrating this type of market. Rising rates plus a tightening balance sheet does not equal a great party.
Largely, it feels like it’s up, down, turn around. One term for this type of market is a kangaroo market within a larger bear market, but none of those terms matter. In reality, it is the bullwhip effect of supply and demand as issues in the chain get resolved. Demand rises, but supply can’t keep up. Supply then goes up, but the demand is squashed by the Fed.
Now that you see the cycle, you understand how big money looks at trends: long term.
Read our final, Bottom Line Summary in Part Three, posted tomorrow.
Our Real Estate Market Explained: Part One “Just The Facts, Ma’am…”
October 18th, 2022
This mid-October we are exploring the current real estate market shift. In this three part series, we examine where we are, where we think we are going and why we are optimists for Arizona.
The Cromford Report is the number 1 resource for Arizona housing. It tracks the history and current status of the Greater Phoenix residential market.
Let’s start with October numbers first:
Active Listings (excluding UCB & CCBS): 20,084 versus 7,649 last year – up 163% – and up 7.4% from 18,694 last month
Active Listings (including UCB & CCBS): 22,580 versus 11,622 last year – up 94.3% – and up 5.0% compared with 21,506 last month
Pending Listings: 4,862 versus 7,605 last year – down 36.1% – and down 13.3% from 5,607 last month
Under Contract Listings (including Pending, CCBS & UCB): 7,358 versus 11,578 last year – down 36.4% – and down 12.6% from 8,419 last month
Monthly Sales: 6,361 versus 9,377 last year – down 32.2% – but up 0.7% from 6,315 last month
Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $277.40 versus $251.87 last year – up 10.1% – but down 3.3% from $286.79 last month
Monthly Median Sales Price: $439,000 versus $410,000 last year – up 7.1% – but down 1.3% from $444,900 last month
Pachinko
The economy is a complex beast. With so many numbers, smoothed-out averages, and other colorful lines on complex charts indicating future price direction, it is extremely hard to pinpoint exactly what is going on at any given time. But when you zoom out, it’s easier to understand the cycles at play, and it allows you to focus on long-term value.
When things change, people start to forget about reality. Investors start to wonder whether the macro conditions are bringing down traditional markets for good. Highly unlikely, of course, and I’ll tell you why in a second. Perhaps there is a natural reset that rebalance the markets at the end of each cycle.
We know that housing is a core factor of our economy. That’s a fact that’s not changing anytime soon. Blackrock wasn’t buying up all the homes in the country in 2020 for fun and games. They bought because they saw the bigger picture.
They got the best interest rates in town, so I doubt they’ll sell anytime soon. But let’s say they wanted to get out of their purchases, where might they park their hard-earned dollar? Stocks? Bonds? Gold? A 9% return is great, but that number is nowhere near what housing historically has returned.
There’s nowhere to hide. Like all good bears, they will sleep with their purchases until the grueling winter is over. What’s even better is they know renters will pay the premium. Oh, crap. Should’ve bought a house last month, right?
The market has been heading to a more balanced state for almost a year and a half. Short-term buyers/flippers see a downward trajectory. They operate out of two impulses, fear and greed. However, when you zoom out through the decades, you can clearly see the macro trajectory. Up only, baby!
The time to be strong is now. I’ll tell you why in Part Two, posted tomorrow.
A Lost Japanese Masterpiece: The Imperial Hotel by Frank Lloyd Wright
July 21st, 2022
Our Owner Debbie Jarson has a unique and sentimental remembrance of Frank Lloyd Wright’s demolished Imperial Hotel.
My father told me a story several years ago about his time in the Army just after the end of WWII. He was fortunate to serve in Tokyo as an Honor Guard to General MacArthur and then later as a driver to the War Tribunal Soviet General Zaryanov. But he was most fortunate to spend time in Tokyo and experience much of the great architecture that existed at that time. Notably The Imperial Hotel.
For my father this was just another building albeit one that was stunningly beautiful. But for me to experience it through my fathers stories, I was in awe of his ability to walk the grounds and wander the hallways. What would it be like to stroll through the lush gardens, have tea at the edge of the ponds strewn with water lilies, sit for a midday meal while looking out over the vast expanse of beauty? Well now, what I only dreamed of is coming true in this wonderful virtual tour provided by Open Culture, a free cultural and educational media accessible on the web.
I hope you enjoy this as much as I have…
The Imperial Hotel has now been digitized for viewing. It’s a WOW – Check it out!
Here at azarchitecture/Jarson & Jarson Real Estate our knowledge base runs deep. We are always watching for trends and analyzing data for our real estate market. One of our best assets is the subscription-only service provided by The Cromford Report. In addition to nearly real time analysis, The Cromford Report recently announced the market statistics comparing July 2021 to July 2022. First, let’s take a look at the hard numbers for 7.21.2022.
– 14,406 active listings for sale +152.8% in one year (up 52.6% from 9,439 last month).
– 8,621 listings under contract +24.2% in one year (down 15.9% from 10,249 last month).
– $474,374 Monthly Median Sales Price +19.5% in one year (down 0.1% from $475,000 last month).
– 8,059 Monthly Sales -20.9% in on year (down 7.7% in one month).
Fast facts and a lot of changing data. “Okay,” you ask, “so what’s this all mean?” We’re here to help you break it all down.
BUYERS:
With an increase of 152.8% of supply, buyers are increasingly finding themselves in better conditions. Homes over $400k have surged over the last year, giving buyers an abundance of options. Supply of homes under $400k are rising. While this is the fastest rate of supply in history, the supply is rising simply because buyers have pulled back (for fairly obvious reasons we will explain).
In a nutshell, our market is headed to “balance”. Typically we’d expect a balanced market to feel, well… “normal”. But this is a normal market put under highly irregular circumstances as it follows a period of shortages and frenzy. But now, when sellers have to compete because of rising inventory and softer demand, buyers get normality. And there’s nothing a buyer loves more than just that.
The process of buying a home can slow down. Buyers are able to weigh their options carefully. It takes a few more days to close a contract, and there’s suddenly some breathing room for scheduled showings.
Of course, buyers are also aware that interest rates are rising as Lenders are following the cue from the Federal Reserve rate hikes. This explains the decreased demand we are experiencing as some Buyers are simply “priced out” due to higher payments. However, rates usually don’t stay fixed in one direction or the other. They can rise, and then they can decline. They usually revert toward some kind of mean once the economy appears stable. The Mortgage Bankers Association predicts mortgage rates will decline to 4.4% by 2024. The current rates are circling 5.5%.
For example, if you bought a home today for $425,000 at a mortgage rate of 5.5%, you would pay approximately $2,413 per month. If rates dropped to 4.4% by this point, a refinance of the remaining balance would lower the payment to $2,068, saving $345 per month. It is important to note that renters are not paying off an investment, or anything except maybe their landlord’s kid’s college fund! They are paying off someone else’s loan or providing income for others. That may seem obvious, but if you’re on the fence about buying a new home, this is a fair reason not to sit on cash.
SELLERS:
As competing supply rises sharply, sales measures are expected to change in tandem. Even if a seller market has weakened, well-priced properties can still receive multiple offers and sell over their asking price. What is normal? This last year saw an average of 19.2% in average sales price per square foot. That’s $300.48 versus $252.09 last year. It’s only down 1% this month.
We’re on the path to “normalcy” in that balanced market. It has taken some time for the Fed to act, but the process of taming inflation is underway and that’s the key to our current market conditions. As a seller, you should expect just that. “Normal” includes, but is not limited to, buyer contingencies, price negotiations, paying for home warranties, and eventually closing cost assistance. These aspects are expected to return to the marketplace before sales prices react. All the things that we are used to seeing in a “normal”, balanced market.
Lastly, this isn’t a buyer’s market. But after spending some short time at the highs of 2021 and early 2022, it may feel like one to some.
Conclusions:
You’ve heard the saying before, what goes up must come down. Right now, you’ve probably been hearing it a lot. It makes your heart pound, your pulse race, and your palms soak as you imagine the worst scenario possible unfold.
Well, the inverse is often true, too. What goes down, must go up. If you’re trying to time the roller coaster, you’re going to get caught in the cross fire. You’ll buy the peaks and sell the valleys, and the fees will tear you apart along the way. Buying or selling with emotions like fear at the steering wheel will only lead you toward the path of least resistance: missing out on the next big party.
The fundamentals of our real estate market, and the Arizona economy at large, bode well for the next few months, even years, in spite of interest rise and increased inflation. There is simply no logical data that points to a substantial decrease in prices and values of residential real estate in our market.
The bottom line: The Fed isn’t done tightening the markets. They have just begun. Historically, we have seen interest rates climb to highs of 18.36%. That was only fifty years ago. Buyers should remember that, while prices can come down and supply may still climb, interest rates can still rise against them. This is a squeeze where strong buyers will prevail. Don’t forget Lenders will try to provide some relief with assorted loan programs that keep home ownership possible for the most payment sensitive buyers.
In as early as the Fall of 2022, the Fed is doubling their tightening on assets. Buyers could find themselves with higher mortgage rates than they would have if they bought months prior.
Again, these are just observations, not predictions, and we all know that predictions are rooted in hope and fear. Don’t make guesses. Don’t wait for the herd to act. Put emotions aside. Make your own plan and stick to it.
It is still a seller’s market. And it’s still a great time to be a home owner. Seller’s will find themselves now having to reasonably compete and that will lead to some correct market pricing.
This could be the market pause that finally offers buyers a chance to act, with opportunity!
Market Update: Industrial Development is Accelerating in the Valley
May 20th, 2022
In 2022, Phoenix has become the number two growing market for industrial development, behind only Dallas-Fort Worth. Industrial demand is higher than ever. And people are moving here in big numbers.
People want to live in Phoenix. The recent numbers show a sweeping migration into the Valley. In 2022 alone, Arizona added 269 new people every single day with no signs of slowing down. Why? Phoenix is beautiful, for one. But it’s also a city with a lifestyle perspective, and with the state’s pro-business policies at the forefront, it can support a thriving and collaborative ecosystem that embraces growth.
In a rapidly evolving economic environment, Arizona has sought to make sure it’s at the forefront of design and infrastructure. Major tech companies are eyeing their chance to create avenues toward alternative fuels, like solar, and Arizona is throwing its weight into the fight. It’s good timing, as the state is already ramping up efforts to attract the engineering talent that will fuel growth in the alternative energy sector.
It’s worth a little effort to make your city memorable, and Phoenix has managed to integrate innovation into its community model.
Historically speaking, Industrial manufacturing has been a huge contributor to jobs in the greater Phoenix area. 138,000 manufacturing jobs are in the region now, and more growth is expected to come. “We are seeing an industrial technologies renaissance, led by semiconductor companies like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company building a massive campus in north Phoenix and Intel expanding with Fab 52 and Fab 62 in the southeast Valley that are driving a whole ecosystem of investment,” says Chris Camacho, president and CEO of Greater Phoenix Economic Council.
Employment in this sector is expected to increase faster in Greater Phoenix than in any other competitor markets, adding 5,400 jobs over the next five years.
Out of a potential regional investment of $90 billion and 49,000 new jobs, 177 of those companies are industrial. 30,000 students have enrolled in engineering programs across Arizona, and with more investments expected to pour into STEM education across the Greater Phoenix, the ecosystem should continue to expand.
In 2021 alone, the Arizona Commerce Authority successfully won more than 90 competitive projects from companies that committed to creating more than 23,500 projected new jobs while investing more than $27 billion in the state. This includes battery manufacturing, electric vehicle assembly, and semiconductor laser manufacturing.
Demand for industrial space in Phoenix has spiked considerably in recent years. Despite the pandemic and government shutdown, there are low vacancies and major investments contributing to the metro’s role as a regional distribution and manufacturing hub.
CBRE’s Phoenix Industrial Market report for Q1 2022 shows construction activity is remaining strong, with 26.6 million square feet under construction to start 2022. A high volume of construction should continue throughout 2022. Out of all under-construction product, 17.7 million square feet, or 66.5%, is in the Southwest Valley. In addition, construction activity in the Southeast Valley is rising, specifically in the Phoenix Mesa Gateway area where 5.3 million square feet is expected to come online in the future. Currently, 35.2 % of the product under construction is committed, displaying a demand in the market for new construction.
Colliers in Arizona’s Q1 2022 industrial market report for Phoenix also examines the sector’s impact on jobs. According to Collier’s report, Phoenix’s industrial labor market is running parallel to its commercial growth, which “remains red hot and consistently performs better each quarter.”
As of February of this year, Metro Phoenix had grown its labor force by 89,600 employees over February of last year, a 4.1% increase. Over the same period, transportation, warehousing and utilities supersector jobs increased by 40.3%, manufacturing jobs by 3.9% and construction jobs by 3.0%.
Arizona is such a key center for innovation, and it’s one of the most popular destinations for residential home buyers. As such, it remains a fantastic opportunity to buy a new home.
Earth Day: Responsible Real Estate
April 20th, 2022
For those of us who live in this unique desert environment, climate issues have become so intertwined with our daily lives. Climate change has led to hotter temperatures and drier conditions. We’ve come to understand that just about everything is connected, and therefore, how we live affects our community. Like our heat-sculpted western landscape, climate is far more than the weather. It’s what we create, what we are, how we live, and how we move about the Valley.
You might think your home is just that – a home. But it’s also an important piece of the environment. The good news is that Eco-friendly homes aren’t just sustainable. With rising energy costs looming, they might actually save you money in the long run.
azarchitecture/Jarson & Jarson Real Estate remains deeply committed to historic preservation and are proud EcoBroker® Affiliates.
GEORGE 5600/CHRISTENSEN’S COURT | STUDIO MA ARCHITECTS
With amazing details, stunning modern eco-friendly design, luxurious floorplans, and a convenient location that calls both North Central Phoenix and the Biltmore Corridor it’s home, The George is one of the most interesting and refined in-fill properties developed in Phoenix.
At first glance, you might not think “green.” But this 2,400 square foot home uses durable materials that last for decades. Xeriscape landscape design with natural paving ensures little to no irrigation. Decomposed granite and a perforated driveway actually allows water to percolate back to the aquifer. Native plants adapt to heat and use less water. The steel facade is even recyclable.
A dynamic arrangement of eye-catching metal skins blend in with the coloration and textures of the neighborhood’s pecan-lined streets and the dark rust color of the Arizona mesquite. Low-e glass lowers heat transfer and keeps interiors cooler, and its breathable structure promotes improved air quality.
This eco-friendly dream home reminds us that sustainability and modern living are not mutually exclusive.
TEMPE URBAN LIVING | Baldinger Studio Architects
In the desert, there is an abundance of sunlight. How a building shapes that light is an important design decision. This project uses a type of solar shading system known as Brie Soleil (French for sun-breaker) that employs a series of horizontal or vertical blades to control the amount of sunlight and solar heat that enters a building. This architectural element shades windows from hot sun and allows natural light with lower summer heat gain.
Three unique levels are connected by an open stairwell that acts a light shaft, drawing the sun from a large skylight deep into the dwelling unit. Semi-enclosed roof top terraces expand the livable space year round and frames views of the city’s skyline. The dwellings are open-plan, uncomplicated and feature energy efficient mechanical systems, enhanced day-lighting, and minimalist Architectural detailing.
The property runs off of a High SEER HVAC, but it has a solar hot water option, making it environmentally sustainable and climate-resilient. As if that wasn’t cool enough, it’s situated near the Light Rail, encouraging use of mass transit. The modern living experience here, and it’s green.
PRD845 | STUDIO MA Architects
Developed by Greenroof LLC and designed by Studio Ma, PRD 845 is an urban infill project in Downtown Phoenix, adjacent to the Roosevelt Historic and Arts Districts. A sensitive cluster of twelve condominium homes, this enclave is organized around two, private “mews” that mix cars and people in an intimate and compelling urban-type environment.
Unit sizes range from 900 to 2,200 square feet and are designed to accommodate an active, live-work life style with ground floor garage / studio spaces and large outdoor roof decks with views of downtown Phoenix and the surrounding mountains. The folded roof plane creates volumetric slots through the complex giving PRD its unique, “skyline” profile.
Carefully chosen building materials compliment the south-west desert environment and include an innovative rain-screen design wall design made of a low mass, corrugated, fiber-reinforced concrete panels on furring channels that allows accumulated heat to escape through a slot at the top of the wall.
These homes are situated near the Light Rail to promote multi-modal transportation, which minimizes the impact on the natural environment.
The architects make it a point to acknowledge the dynamic relationship between objects and their surrounding environment. This is at the heart of sustainability consciousness.
LOLOMA 5 | Bruder+Partners Architects
The first built under the City of Scottsdale Green Building Program, Loloma 5 is a thoughtful and sophisticated acknowledgement of the traditional and modern roots of its Old Town Scottsdale context. A place with pride in its false-front, covered boardwalk, and “old west” friendly downtown image. The project creates a live/work environment in the heart of Scottsdale that celebrates both the historic and physical context of the place. Just like the others, it’s designed with sustainability in mind.
Approached from the west face along Marshall Way, clients and friends of the Loloma community are welcomed by a small natural desert garden. The project emerges from the plane of the land by a first level architectural plinth of sandblasted rose gray concrete masonry units. Above the block, the west façade serves as a shield against the sun with its ribbed gray Rheinzinc cladding and deep recessed narrow vertical windows of varied widths.
Along the south, patios connect in a linear courtyard to create intimate entries for each of the five units. Angled planes project outward above the doors, breaking down the verticality and further expressing each individual unit. These corrugated metal planes seem to fly passed one another, connected only by a long sliver of light from recessed slot windows. Limiting the intense southern light, each of the corrugated planes is punctured only with a single simple square of glass.
In scale, proportion, details, and finely articulated materials, Loloma 5 draws carefully from its local context and environment, carving out a unique place between the history and future of Scottsdale, for comfortable and sustainable urban desert living. azarchitecture/Jarson & Jarson operate out of this special Will Bruder designed complex.
