Be part of the conversation: azarchitecture/Jarson & Jarson Architecture blog covers architecture and civic topics that comment on what’s happening in the Valley’s diverse design community. Here’s what’s happening now:
Market Updates for Mid April 2020 taken from ARMLS statistics with some help from the data analysts at The Cromford Report:
After the first 2 weeks of April we can see 2,829 closed listings across Greater Phoenix. This is down 20% from 3,519 during the same 2 weeks of 2019. During March we saw listings under contract fall sharply, but closings remained quite strong. We now expect April closings to be approximately 20% lower than last year and based on the statistics from the first 2 weeks of April 2020.
The interesting thing is that the fall in closings is not necessarily affecting all price ranges equally. Instead, the big falls in volume were at the extreme ends of the market. Closed listings over $1 million were down 30%, and closed listings under $250K were down 42%. But… closed listings between $500K and $1 million, were up 11% and closed listings between $250K and $500K, were down only 4%. Essentially, the range between $250K and $1 million is largely unchanged from last year since it is down less than 2%.
Supply and Demand, as always, will tell the eventual fate of the real estate market in the Valley.
As you may already know (especially if you are a buyer), prior to COVID-19, homes in the Phoenix Metro Area were in shockingly short supply. This, coupled with a greater demand for homes really made for quite the sellers market. Currently, demand is being suppressed by the COVID-19 pandemic, but eventually these constraints will be removed and demand should rebound. It may not rebound as fast and far as it fell, because the financial implications of the pandemic. Lenders may also tend to be more cautious moving foward; however, as long as supply remains lower than demand there should be no downward pressure on prices. If this occurs, home values should be sustained.
As far as supply goes, there are several locations around the Valley where supply has barely risen at all over the past month and some that have even experienced a decline! Supply has declined in the following areas: Arizona City, Fountain Hills and Paradise Valley. Supply has not risen much in: Anthem, Casa Grande, Cave Creek, and Gold Canyon, Scottsdale, Sun City West and Sun Lakes. Supply remains well below April 2019 levels in Apache Junction, Buckeye, Laveen, Litchfield Park, Maricopa, Sun City and Tolleson. Rises in supply have occurred in Avondale, Chandler, Gilbert, Glendale, Goodyear, Mesa, Peoria, Phoenix, Queen Creek and Tempe, but even with this rise, supply still remains lower than it was in April 2019. Only the City of Surprise has returned to the level of supply it was at in April 2019, and only El Mirage has surpassed the April 2019 level of supply.
The big news is that new listing counts are definitely declining, most likely due to COVID-19. Last week they were down 29% from the same week in 2019. If this trend continues then it becomes more likely that supply will remain tight and stay below the diminished level of demand. On the other hand, if supply starts to rise, we will be headed toward a more balanced market.
We are doing our very best to keep our pulse on the market so that we know exactly what is happening with real estate in the Valley. Despite the current pandemic, prices are still good, closings are still happening, and this is still a good time to sell your home. It also may be a good time to purchase property especially if you are looking in that lower price range as many VRBO’s are starting to come on the market at the same time that many iBuyers and investors have paused their purchasing.
If you are looking to buy or sell, please note that we have put protocols and precautions in place to ensure the safety of our clients and agents while we are showing homes, and we are utilizing technology such as Virtual Tours and Live Virtual Showings and Open Houses as a way to meet with clients and market properties. Please call or email us at firstname.lastname@example.org to set up a listing appointment or private or virtual showing. We are here for you!